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Mises Economics Blog

Risk, Uncertainty, and Economic Organization

October 22, 2009 6:06 AM by Peter G. Klein (Archive)

Why can't a central planning board mimic the operations of entrepreneurs? The key, for Mises, is that entrepreneurial appraisement is not a mechanical process of computing expected values using known probabilities. FULL ARTICLE

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Comments (2)

  • Weingarten

    The article differentiates between "class probability" where the probabilities are known, "case probability" where they are estimated by sampling, and “entrepreneurial appraisement”, where they are intuited. As far as I am aware, statisticians and systems analysts, deal with these forms properly in theory and practice. So is there a need to extensively elaborate upon them? Perhaps a simple example could be given, which shows some difference in calculation between someone who recognizes these differences, and someone who does not?

    Published: October 22, 2009 4:43 PM

  • georges lane

    Surely,
    "Most economists are familiar with Knight's distinction between "risk" and "uncertainty."

    But they should be also familiar with Frederic Bastiat's thinking (1850) about uncertainty. See for example http://www.econlib.org/library/Bastiat/basHar14.html#Chapter 14

    However, unfortunately, it does not appear it is the case.

    I am sure that Mises was knowing this text and was inspired by its words.

    Webly yours

    Published: October 24, 2009 8:46 AM

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