Observations About the Gold Price Rally
With Gold soaring past $530 now, its highest level for a quarter century, some interesting things should be noted.
First, this increase have happened during a time when the dollar have risen against other mayor currencies. Usually there is a negative correlation between the dollar price of gold and the exchange value of the dollar versus the euro and the yen. But now gold have risen in price against virtually all currencies except the Brazilian real. While the gold price in dollars have risen 20%, the price in euros have risen nearly 40% and the price in yen have risen more than 40%.
Another interesting thing to note is how this have been virtually ignored by the supply-side community. When gold prices fell in the late 1990s because of a combination of the increased foreign exchange value of the dollar and fears about central bank sales of gold, supply-siders like Larry Kudlow, Steve Forbes and Jude Wanniski went hysterical about the Fed's alleged "deflationary" monetary policy and demanded that the Fed inflated more. That's right, they called Fed policy "deflationary" at the height of the stock-market bubble when money supply was growing at double digit levels, using the then falling gold price as evidence.
Yet for some reason, I have yet to find a NRO article advocating a "tighter" monetary policy.
This despite the fact that Larry Kudlow as late as August this year wrote that "Should gold break out of its range and move, say to $450 to $500, that would suggest inflationary liquidity should be removed by additional Fed reserve-draining and rate-hiking actions. ". Now Gold is at $530, Larry....
What then are the prospects for the gold price? The argument against gold was summarized in a recent The Economist article denouncing "the barbaric relic". Yet with short-term interest rates around zero in most countries and with the risk that central banks will try to accelerate inflation to bail out governments and households from their record debt burden, gold seems like a good inflation hedge. And some "emerging economy" central banks have been considering increasing its gold reserves, most notably Russia, who have said it considers buying 500 tonnes (16 million ounces, at a price tag of $8.5 billion at current price) of gold.
While some form of short-term correction is possible -indeed likely- after the recent sharp rise, it therefore seems likely that gold could continue to rise until central banks is able to rein in inflationary expectations-or if they in an effort to attack the symptom rather than the disease try to supress gold prices with large-scale sales of gold reserves.
Comments (18)
Raymond Weklar
The gold climb seems to be a signal that we are entering a new phase of price inflation, especially when you consider that silver, platinum (over $1,000), copper (All time highs), oil, orange juice (7 year high)and housing prices are all in bull markets.
Published: December 10, 2005 12:30 PM
mike
"large-scale sales of gold reserve"
Wouldn't that be nice!
Unfortunately for the banks, there may not be that much reserve left. Anyone with information on how this is affecting gold lease transactions?
Published: December 10, 2005 3:08 PM
Erik
The rising price of the precious metal is stimulating further mining growth. Generally the higher the gold price is then the keener that people are to look for more gold.
Published: December 10, 2005 7:02 PM
Ashok Tewari
Although gold is scaling record hight, it is a vulnerable investment option in long term.
75 % of gold demand is for jewellary, 13 % for industrial consumption and balance 13 % as investment option. The cart is too heavily loaded on one side.
A drop in jewallary consumption, and the price will tumble. Although in short term, so long as everyone is running to the loaded side, it seems safe.
Published: December 11, 2005 5:15 AM
Artisan
Perhaps jewellery is not subject to so much fluctuation, after all...? Some acquaintances of mine, jewellers, managed to flee the Pol-pot dictature in Cambodja, selling their diamonds, as it was one of the few things still worth anything during the revolution.
Personally I have been more impressed by the value of gold mine shares the last years. I'm still quite uneasy about central banks selling off reserves though.
Published: December 11, 2005 6:11 AM
Blah
My guess is that, in a few months, the housing market will keep slowing down, and eventually, crash. Everyone will be screaming, "Oh my God! Oh my God! We thought the market was just going to slow down, but it's a crash! Save us, Bernanke! Save us!"
Bernanke will appear in the sky, his cape blowing in the wind, and he will proclaim, "Never fear, for the Fed is here!" He'll roll back his sleeves, fly over to his printing press, and switch the dial from "high" to "full power".
At first, the market will rejoice and respond by buying stocks, because they think it's time for another bull market. But wait! There's a problem: Those god damned lenders are adding an inflation premium to their interest rates! High interest rates mean no boom and high money supply growth means prices keep rising. Eventually, the market will realize that we've entered an inflationary recession (a.k.a. stagflation), and they'll start buying gold as an inflation hedge.
Published: December 11, 2005 11:37 AM
Paul Edwards
Blah,
Very funny! And it could pan out just that way.
Published: December 11, 2005 9:04 PM
anarkhos
Blah, I also found that post quite amusing. This blog could do with a bit more humor considering the desperate situation.
The question is, will we even be allowed to own gold.
Published: December 13, 2005 3:05 PM
David White
anarkhos,
Your fears are well-founded:
http://www.usagold.com/cpm/Hoppe.html
Published: December 13, 2005 5:57 PM
Marco de Innocentis
I find it very difficult to believe that the huge fall in the USD price of gold from 1980 until recent years was simply due to "a combination of the increased foreign exchange value of the dollar and fears about central bank sales of gold". We are talking about a fall from $850 dollars per ounce in 1980 to about $260 in 1999. And that's not even counting the fall in purchasing power of the dollar over those 19 years.
Everywhere in the world a dollar in 1999 had less purchasing power than a dollar in 1980.
Published: December 14, 2005 7:50 AM
Stefan Karlsson
Marco, I wasn't refering to the 1980-81 decline in gold from its brief $850 dollar peak. I was refering to the decline in the late 1990s from the $350-400 range in the mid-1990s to the $250 low in 1999.
Published: December 14, 2005 3:23 PM
Emma Blay
We are members of small scale miners here in west and central AFRICA. And our objcctive is to improve our mining sector to bust our production. At present we are having 300kgs of alluvial gold dust to sell to accquire mining equipments, and looking for a buyer who can help us to get the best equipment . We are looking for equipment suitable for rivers.
we can enter in to joint venture partnership of 50% deal with your company.
ALLUVIAL GOLD DUST.
QUANTITY - 300KGS
QUALITY - 22 KARAT PLUS.
PRICE PER KG 9500 USD.
Published: February 25, 2006 3:52 PM
roland bonsu
Dear sir,
WE ARE BONTE GOLD MINNER (LTD),IN GHANA, WEST AFRICA
HERE IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF WHAT WE HAVE TO OFFER:
1.PRODUCT: AU METAL(GOLD)/GOLD DUST
2.ORIGIN: GHANA,WEST AFRICA..
3.TYPE: ALLUVIAL DUST (GOLD).
4.PURITY: 22+ KARAT, OR 92%.
5. PRICE: $8,000USD
6, QUANTITY: 200KILOS
WE WISH INTERESTED BUYERS LIKE YOU TO COME WITH YOUR CONDITIONS OF PURCHASE AS NO UPFRONT PAYMENT IS NEEDED FOR US TO START OFF BUSINESS WITH YOU. UPON YOUR CONFIRMATION OF INTEREST, WE WOULD SEND A DETAILED FCO TO YOU, PREFERABLY VIA YOUR FAX NUMBER. AN URGENT RESPONSE WOULD BE APPRECIATED AS WE LOOK FORWARD TO DOING BUSINESS WITH YOU. Email bontegoldmines1@yahoo.com
Published: April 9, 2006 3:55 PM
Peter
I just found a rather interesting article on what forms money could take in the future: http://www.rfreitas.com/Nano/TangibleNanomoney.htm.
Published: April 10, 2006 7:03 AM
Gold Blogger
Have you ever heard that Russian alchemists have found a way to manufacture gold from lead at a cost of 400-600$ an ounce? They have never done it before because the manufacturing cost was too high. However, at today’s gold prices they are making a killing! What do you think?
Published: November 8, 2007 10:19 PM
Kaisilver
It is 2008 Feb, the gold price is 900 U.S$ ++ and no sight of it stabilizing even at 1,000 U.S$. However, there is one trend that should keep the prices in check to a modest extent. Jewelry buyers have now shifted their purchases to silver jewelry. This will ease the strain that gold prices feel to a certain extent. The increasing demand for wholesale silver jewelry was felt by all jewelry sellers, in Europe and U.S. However, jewelers are braving for a at least a single stretch jump touch to 1,000 U.S$ within the year 2008.
Published: February 3, 2008 2:18 AM
Justin
Dear Sir,
We are small scale gold miners here on the sub region of West Africa.
We have some huge quantity of alluvial gold dust for sale at a
considerable price which is below world market price.
If you are interested, do not hesitate to get back to us as soon as
possible for us to give you our co-operate offer.
We have 450 KG of Alluvial Gold dust for sale.
The offer below: Commodity: Gold dust (AU)
Origin: Burkina- Faso
Quantity: 450 KG
Quality: 22 carat +
Purity: 92,31%
euros 13.500(FOB)
For more details you can contact me by email: baglo.justin@gmail.com
We look forward in doing a long lasting business transaction with you.
Best Regards.
Mr Justin
Published: February 5, 2009 11:04 AM
Omar Diallo
We are Gold dust miners here in Mali the village of Sadiola, also have our mining unit head office in Bamako capital of Mali, though we are new not quite long on this gold trade but from news and from the experience of other miners we will say we have gained alot of experience on this trade, but we cant boast of large quantity at the moment but we can boast of 320kilograms presently available for sell.
and how ever due to taxes falling on our side from the government of Mali, our price is a bit Higher than other sellers because we know our potentials on this gold trade, which our price is 17,500us dollars per kilogram, also negotiable if the client is willing to purchase from us most especially on a contract basis, as we do work with FOB, as instructed by the government of Mali.our gold is good which is 95.6% purity, as tested and to the satisfactory of the Mali government here with the licenced Laboratory, DNGM laboratory, so we are fully ready for transaction with interested partners for a long term business relationship which we believe it will also help us to improve our skills and also advertise our name and our quality
Published: July 21, 2009 1:50 PM