Schwarzenegger has declared a state of emergency. The CDC is working on a vaccine. Medical muckymucks are warning of “pandemic potential” and telling people to reduce all human contact by 50% and stand 6 feet away from all people. New York schools are shutting down. In Chicago, school kids have been instructed not to shake hands. The Obama administration is being criticized for not declaring martial law.
My Lord, how many have died from this catastrophe? To quote MSNBC: “No deaths have been reported in the U.S.”
But surely the many who have the swine flu will kick the bucket any minute. And how many cases are those? 68.
Compare: every day some 116 people die in crashes on the nation’s highways. No one holds the owners of those roads responsible. Walter is right.
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From what I understand, more people in the United States die from tuberclosis than all the people who have contracted (read: not died) from swine flu recently in North America.
How many people, right at this minute, are in the hospital or at a clinic being treated for heart disease, cancer, HIV, tuberculosis, or other such life-threatening disease? Surely there are more individuals suffering from any one of these at any given time than all the recorded cases of swine flu. Methinks a little perspective is in order.
The government’s and related parties’ reactions to the swine flu outbreak is another confirmation of Professor Higgs’s crisis and leviathan thesis.
But it’s piggy flu! It’ll kill us all just like in 1918!
I wonder how many Spanish flu deaths would’ve been prevented by modern medicine? A flu pandemic today would probably just make the whole word miserable.
Well I understand that more number of people die on the highways everyday than those who have died till now from Swine flu, but the main reason why there is such a panic because the the POSSIBILITY of the deaths of thousands perhaps tens of thousands in a very short period of time.
The highway deaths, will continue to happen at a consistent rate, so public mentality is well adjusted to it.
Another thing is in case of a pandemic in a society of pure liberty(no public property at all), even more drastic measures would have been taken.
If one school gets one case of the flu it will shut itself down, and rest of all the schools will either follow or have their kids taken flu shots. (Poor schools will shut down, rich schools will give flu shots).
The movement across the properties would be heavily restricted, compared to right now where the govt is not doing any of those things in order to not spread panic or for political reasons.
Things would be slowed down drastically until the price of keeping things slow(like movement, public activities etc), is more than the price of taking the risk of a pandemic on their property.
Overall cheaper schools, cheaper roads, cheaper cinema halls will shut themselves down(or become expensive cinema halls by including the safety measures fees). More expensive schools, roads and cinemas will ensure safety from pandemics(by necessitating flu shots).
I am not saying that Govt is a better entity to take control of this job, nor that free market is not a better alternative for this problem.
All I am saying is that you cannot sell the non-severity of the free market measures as a plus point of a free market society.
Gee, anything that can close public schools is not all that bad at all. I had the Asian Flu in 1957 at 14. It wasn’t fun, but I watched a lot of TV and even read a couple of books while out of school.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/H2N2
Renegade Division, you said:
“Things would be slowed down drastically until the price of keeping things slow(like movement, public activities etc), is more than the price of taking the risk of a pandemic on their property.”
Wouldn’t that be in 5 minutes?
36,000 people die every year from the regular flu
even the communist news network knows that
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html
I watched the Ron Paul tube on the swine flu the other day. He probably knows more about the medical technicalities and government reaction, but as Renegade Division pointed out – the fear is that the flu would spread quickly and rapidly, or even mutating, turning into an epidemic. This has happened time and again (c.f. recent bird flu in Asia, etc), I would like to think that the medical practitioners and biologists have sound reasons behind their worries.
As Walter Block points out, 40,000 people die every year on America’s public roads. Where’s the state of emergency there?
A google search turned up data that and average 195000 deaths occur in US hospitals every year (2000, 2001, 2002) “due to potentially preventable in-hospital medical errors”. I didn’t do a lengthy search, but I suspect that rate has continued. This is much worse than traffic fatalities. Where is the uproar for this?
Because I am so egotistical I will direct you guys to my previous arguments on this. The point is that the germ theory is a crock – and so, as usual, the only thing we need fear is the government response to this non-crisis.
http://blog.mises.org/archives/009217.asp
Just search for punter and be dazzled by my extraordinary demolition of this idiotic theory not to mention my witty banter with a “james joyce”.
“As Walter Block points out, 40,000 people die every year on America’s public roads. Where’s the state of emergency there?”
As Renegade Division has argued, the analogy is entirely false. I’m not arguing for state intervention – just that such a comparison is flawed and inappropriate.
re: punter
I read your “germ theory denialism” arguments on the other thread.
Haven’t you heard of Koch and his postulates?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Koch%27s_postulates
What do you think is producing these toxins in a patient’s body then?
Certain bacteria survive by having a mucous membrane that protects them… this membrane is toxic to us. Not all of the membrane is toxic, but enough of them is.
There are also “pathogenecity islets” in bacteria DNA, probaby as a result of circular DNA packages that are traded among other bacteria. That has been known to generate molecules and proteins that are demonstrably toxic.
Also, tour allegation that “there’s never been an experiment demonstrating the pathogenicity of a germ” is patently untrue.
Hahahahahahahahahahaha!!!!! I agree that only one of us has read about Koch’s postulates.
You do understand that conformity to these postulates was immediately rejected on the grounds that there are lots of asymptomatic ‘carriers’ of disease. It says it right in the link you sent me. I can’t believe that you would send me a link proving that you are wrong.
In short, absolutely no disease anywhere fulfills Koch’s postulates by mainstream medicine. Not to mention that there are plenty of people with similar symptoms and no (or different germs). Do you not consider it odd that we are told that herpes is a contagious disease but virtually all of us carry the virus our whole lives. And it is not just herpes but the meningitis bacteria, HIV antibodies (they need to dilute the tests otherwise everybody would test positive) and virtually every other so called disease causing bacteria or virus.
I accept that if you overload a system with too much bacteria it might be toxic. Consequently it is a good idea not to get vaccinated for any supposedly bacteria caused infections. Nonetheless, the bacteria do not just attack living cells. The bacteria comes about when we are sick and we have cell necrosis for some other reason. The bacteria is cleaning up the dead cells and helping in the healing process. That is why bacteria (and sometimes viruses) are around when we are sick. But they do not cause the sickness.
I can’t really prove a negative but if you can provide me with the link/reference that shows such an experiment be my guest. Although given your history I suspect that you will send me a link that pours even more cold water on your beliefs.
Watch this scaremongering propaganda vid from 1976:
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=e83_1240893103
re: punter
I agree with your admission that you are egotistical.
There are so many things wrong with your claims (especially the post which you linked) – I have no idea where to start. It’s like trying to argue with a flat-earth fanatic from the ground up.
Too troublesome.
The reason I linked Koch’s postulates was because i thought (mistakenly) that they would also include experiments – and these are routine experiments – whereby some one managed to infect a batch of benign bacteria with some DNA and made them into a toxic form. btw an experiment of this variety was incidentally also one of the experiments that proved the function of DNA as some sort of instructional molecule. (they had no idea as to its significance until much later)
However, as pertaining to Koch’s, it was also the first time someone isolated information taken from a hostile form of life, introduced it to a benign form, and noticed the change.
The list of questions in the post which you linked in the end is just vapid – you obviously no nothing of biology, or any sound understanding of whatever you’re railing against.
For instance, this one is laughable: “Where did bird flu and SARS go? There was no vaccine, no ‘herd immunity’ so simultaneously trillions of viral particles presumably mutated into a benign form.”
SARS never did manage to go into a full fledged human to human transmission stage, and even if it did it didn’t happen soon enough.
Did you think viral particles do not die?
Viruses can’t survive for long in the atmosphere, they only thrive in specific environments. So one of the reasons why they told you not to travel in an air conditioned car – well, air conditioning means you had your windows closed and the virus can’t escape outside.
The original bird flu has always had a reservoir of viruses in the migrational birds, mostly aquatic fowl.
Back to Koch: his basic approach is right, but his axioms were slightly wrong. In a way, he was proven wrong rapidly, because he was from the 18th century (I think), and they didn’t know about genes, only that specific germs cause specific diseases. However, it was still a great leap in thinking that “certain germs” –> “disease”.
Of course, some people would have a better immunity against certain diseases, sometimes your immune system is just lucky, other times there are other quirks
Also, you should check out the Nobel-prize winning work of Marshall – who is well-known for proving that bacteria Helicobacter pylori are the cause of most stomach ulcers, reversing decades of medical doctrine which held that ulcers were caused by stress, spicy foods, and too much acid. He accomplished this by swallowing a vial of stomach ulcer germs.
But it’s so frustrating to address denialists of this kind (together with their websites) because they have a logical fallacy or inaccuracy in the middle of their chain of logic, and you have to spot it for every single one.
I’m not gonna do it. I’m saving my preferences for something else.
However, you can carry on your fight on this site which deals with anti-vaccine loonies:
http://scienceblogs.com/erv/
If some drunken idiot twirls a loaded gun for fun and ends up shooting himself in the leg, no one here would argue that gun makers or gun retailers should be held responsible for the incident. By the same token how many traffic deaths are caused by the poor state of the roads? Or, just simply, drunken idiots behind the wheel? Most types of deaths are preventable through people merely engaging in healthful eating, healthful drinking, not starting fights, and exercising. Lung cancer ought to be one of the rarer types of cancer but happens to be one of the major types because people like to smoke.
On the other hand, what of the statistics of the Spanish Flu? Admittedly, there is more medical science available than there was in those times. However, the danger of an highly infectious and deadly disease shouldn’t be underestimated. If Swine Flu could subtlely mutate in a way that it became unresponsive to any medication then there could be potential for massive deaths. What can be interesting is to see the way different countries can address the problem – can the interventionist countries stop the spread of a deadly disease more quickly than a relatively free country because they have no qualms about individual freedom?
I suspect the weaponized vaccine about to be offered to “protect” the public will be more deadly than the allegedly pandemic swine flu… as it was in the ’70s during the last swine flu incident.
Coming as it did just a couple months after the extraordinary incident in which Baxter Pharma “accidentally” contaminated some seasonal flu vaccines with live avian flu virus, one wonders what’s happening here.
Is it just various agencies jumping on the bandwagon to secure their budgets… or is there a potential population control agenda here?
Dr. Mercola had an interesting comment:
“Could a mixed animal-human mutant like this occur naturally? And if not, who made it, and how was it released?
“Not one to dabble too deep in conspiracy theories, I don’t have to strain very hard to find actual facts to support the notion that this may not be a natural mutation, and that those who stand to gain have the wherewithal to pull off such a stunt.
“Just last month I reported on the story that the American pharmaceutical company Baxter was under investigation for distributing the deadly avian flu virus to 18 different countries as part of a seasonal flu vaccine shipment. Czech reporters were probing to see if it may have been part of a deliberate attempt to start a pandemic; as such a “mistake” would be virtually impossible under the security protocols of that virus.”
http://www.voteronpaul.com/newsDetail.php?Critical-Alert-The-Swine-Flu-Pandemic-Fact-or-Fiction-899
And we’ve been blogging about this issue at HealthFreedomUSA.org -
http://www.healthfreedomusa.org/?p=2581
Solution to the problem is clear: more freedom and less government. Unless, of course, you trust your health to the state, in which case, you get what you deserve.
anon
Are you the sort of guy who picks a fight with someone, throws a punch and then declares the fight to be over?
You stepped in the ring with me by your own choice remember?
I have no idea what your comment about SARS has to do with anything. We were told that there was a virus, it was highly contagious and pathogenic. It then simply disappeared as if by magic. I don’t disagree that it couldn’t be passed from humans to humans, indeed I am quite sure that absolutely no disease can be passed from humans to humans, or animals to humans or plants or whatever (you may or may not remember how I said I didn’t believe in the germ theory of disease). Which is why, even in these epidemics, doctors remain remarkably healthy.
But the mainstream story was that we should all run around like headless chooks because there was a terrible epidemic caused by a deadly and contagious virus, but then for no apparent reason the disease stopped. Either a pathogenic virus never existed in the first place or it went somewhere those are our two options. If it went somewhere I would like to know where.
Do I think viral particles do not die? I have absolutely no idea what to make of this. Mainstream medicine says that viruses are not actually alive. Therefore they can’t die. It is like asking whether you can make a rock living again – it makes no sense. I didn’t make up mainstream medicine I am just trying to understand it – and believe me it isn’t easy.
As for Marshall, you know who else won a Nobel Prize – Al Gore. I believe also that the makers of Gardasil got a gong too. And why not, they came up with the world’s stupidest method of ‘proving’ the safety of a drug. I for one am about to use their method to ‘prove’ that putting your hand in a blender is a perfectly safe practice (the ‘placebo’ group will have to put their heads in). I think we can safely say that scientific advancement is not exactly at the forefront of the Nobel Prize committee.
Ralph Fucatola: “Is it just various agencies jumping on the bandwagon to secure their budgets… or is there a potential population control agenda here?”
It was Rothbard who made the essential observation about the role of court intellectuals. I’ve always found it interesting how Austrians are so quick to pick up on that in the realm of economics, but somehow miss the obvious when it comes to other fields. The most important question you can ask yourself as an Austrian is this: what is so special about economics that it is the only field that has shills (Greenspan) and dupes (Krugman), and that everyone (besides Austrians) has gotten so so wrong?
Perhaps it’s time to start consistently and accurately applying the epistemology you know and understand across a wider spectrum of fields? Or has being an Austrian prepared you to learn nothing besides economics?
Aside from simple government capitalizing/feeling important, people do this sort of thing all the time – they really don’t seem to realise the scale of the world at all. They treat statistics like they’re still living in hunter-gatherer groups.
Also, most flu deaths are caused by fever, dehydration and other complications, aren’t they? And isn’t that pretty easy to take care of with gatorade and aspirin?
re: punter
re: Vichy
You’re wrong. Flu is only a sypmtom. c.f. the rest of the reply.
re: punter
…. do you even know how viruses work?
How viruses work:
http://www.howstuffworks.com/virus-human.htm
For the SARS virus to disappear people had to die, chickens had to be culled, patients quarantined.
A a virus is a piece of DNA wrapped in protein, which in turn can sometimes be wrapped in a membrane. it may be released into the atmosphere where, where the UV would kill it, or the water droplet it was expelled in would dry up and it’d “die”, or denature.
If the virus ends up in the body, its membrane could be recognised by our immune system and is denatured. Otherwise it will infect a cell, the body will recognise the infected cell and kill it. either way, it will be recognised once it is active and be disposed of by the body. If this doesn’t happen, you’re in trouble.
As for Marshall’s work – sure, Krugman got a Nobel, but that doesn’t negate the significance and value of Marshall’s work.
Ignorance is often a choice – but I’m sure you’ll care enough to look up any biology or medical textbook (your objections would be satisfactorily answered). Germ theory denialism simply has no credible grounds.
anon,
You are obviously not that used to arguing so let me replay what has transpired.
I provided a list of phenomena that (in my opinion) call into question the plausibility of the germ theory.
So far you attempted to explain the grand total of one of the phenomena that I listed. You then declared the rest to be “vapidâ€. This is great. I might just apply this ‘reasoning’ to all of my life. After asking my boss for a raise and listening to her respond by saying no I will simply indicate that that is a vapid answer and she will have no choice but to give me a raise.
Now your next method of attack was to tell me that I didn’t know anything about viruses. If only I understood viruses you reasoned, I would never be asking these questions. You then sent me a link that answered none of my questions.
If you want to argue with me then answer the questions provided, or provide references that provide these answers. They can be as technical or as dumbed down as you like. But just stating that there are answers out there somewhere in the ether, you just refuse to say where, is not going to work. Do you think that I have never asked doctors these questions, or that I have never tried to look them up in a textbook, or even on google? And what’s more you still haven’t provided me with a reference to an isolation. Please do so… I am waiting.
The thing about the germ theory is that it simply dismisses the laws of cause and effect and invariably withdraws to statements such as – we don’t know why, it just does. We are told the reason some people get sick and others don’t is because their immune system is stronger, but if viruses can only attack immune compromised people and hence weaken them further, how could anybody survive any viral assault? Also, many people with high counts of T-cells can be sick and people with low counts healthy. Some people eat only unhealthy foods and never exercise and live to be 100, others eat well and exercise and die of pneumonia.
The fact is that the germ theory is exactly the same as the primitive notion of disease. Nobody knew why someone was afflicted so they just thought it was caused by an evil spirit. Today, if someone has a disease but no germs can be found, we call it a virus or a prion. We can’t find anything but we are sure that the evil spirit (germ) must exist, it is just invisible. It is not science, indeed it doesn’t even have a pretense of science (save for its protagonists wearing white coats and calling themselves “Doctor”) it is mysticism.
Your objections are “vapid” – but I’m not about to waste time addressing them anymore when there are websites and textbooks who have adequately answered them.
But you’re trying to falsely construct a be-all and end-all case for health. Medical science is incomplete, and that there are gaps – yes, but to claim that it e is akin to mysticism is stupid. It’s clear from that old post of yours that you don’t have solid understanding of medical science / elementary biology.
Anyway:
Germ theory denialism = Flat-earthism. There’s no credibility to it whatsoever.
You don’t talk talk about what a healthy immune system is. Healthy equals enough cells to circulate around, the proper genetic tricks to churn out various receptors to hopefully bind to exposed viral fragments, and adequate cells to mete out the punishment once the fragments are recognised. There is a big component of luck involved.
Ignorance is a choice, but I don’t have an obligation to do this research for you. I refuse to do flat-earthist 50 questions where we get bogged down on semantics. As it is this is already exhausting enough. Bad for my health.
Thanks to Mexico Rapid News about Swine Flu, all the world is taking mayor preventive actions on a virus that has not inmediate vaccines to respond to great numbers of infected population… cause whatever the reason, now this new virus, exist among us…. Mexico is saving world lives, even its own big economic crisis behind this situation, and for sure, even this could become a huge epidemy, now is less to care than to drive safely with our fasten seat belt on.
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