The logical positivists devised a rigid criterion of knowledge, writes Benjamin C. Richards: you cannot know anything you cannot empirically verify. The logical positivists’ criterion did not meet its own demand: logical positivism is self-refuting. But scientists never got the memo, and there persists to this day a widespread prejudice that the only “real” sciences are empirical sciences. And Keynesians want to be scientists too! FULL ARTICLE
Source link: http://blog.mises.org/9588/science-is-as-science-does/
Science Is as Science Does
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Is there a summary or an online version of the “Constitution of Liberty”? How is this much different from Rothbard’s ethics of liberty?
My main point above was that evolution is a science that looks at millions of small details, and is able to describe, to my satisfaction, how life has come to have everything from viruses, bacteria, mitochondria, sponges, and even humans.
However, evolution cannot explain why we are having a financial crisis today. That requires a much higher level of analysis. While the origin of man can be explained by a few low level rules, luck, and a few billions of years of natural selection, nothing quite so simple can explain the outcome of the actions of these humans.
Austrian Economics begins with the actions and desires of humans and develops a logical framework to explain free exchanges in the market place, and also how force affects the patterns of these exchanges.
Austrian economic knowledge grows using logic; evolution knowledge grows from physical evidence.
Mainstream economics tries to use the ideas of science, as evolution does, but has nowhere near the amount of reliable information to look at. Evolution has been cross checked in a myriad of ways and also uses experiments to reproduce events.
Economics has but a handful of historical events that it can call its evidence. While there have been a few experiments, such as socialism and the American constitutionalism, these hardly could be seen as controlled experiments. It would be like asking evolutionists to come up with a theory of life having only seen two or three fossils.
Fundamentalist,
The Theory of Natural Selection predicted descreet particulate heredity (not blending), mutations of those particles, selection driving the proportions of those particles in populations.
Since then we have also discovered that mutations do occur in genes and do cause changes. Experiments have been done where a known strain (with known genetics) is introduced into a novel environment. When a new strain evolves from this we can look at the genetics and see what genetic changes took place. In many cases they have identified the exact mutation that caused the change. So the theory was tested and passed.
The theory predicts other things about how we would expect to find fossils. For instance we would expect to find intermediate organisms and we do (despite ridiculous claims by Creationists to the contrary). Tested and passed.
There are also long lists you can find on the internet of other tests that the theory of natural selection has passed.
Most of them are empirical tests like these and many of those do not involve experimentation at all. This is why I say empirical does not equal experimental. Even if you removed all experiments done to confirm evolution there would still be tons of empirical confirming tests of evolution.
Evolution is an empirical science even though it is not one where experimentation rules the day.
“Nope, the “wars” are very current and ongoing. Fact is, unless you’re willing to understand Mises’s claims within his Kantian framework (or Menger’s with regard to his Aristotelian framework), you’re not going to understand him at all, so strictly speaking this is not a job for laymen. This article is perhaps testament to that fact, as are many comments here.”
That’s baloney. I’ve read him and I understand him perfectly well. I can also map Austrian Economic theory onto other philosophical theories of knowledge. Logic works the same in these systems.
Problem is that some of these philosophical systems are just plain wrong. The logical positivists are wrong.
Mises had some pretty ridiculous things to say about other sciences. I don’t recall right now but they were pretty embarrassing. Which isn’t surprising. He’s around 50 years behind the times on the philosophy of science.
For example Mises might use a good dose of Daniel Dennett.
Brian Macker: “Since then we have also discovered that mutations do occur in genes and do cause changes. … So the theory was tested and passed.”
I don’t know how many times I have to repeat that creationists embrace genetic changes within animal types to produce new species. I keep repeating it, but you guys keep beating your straw man. This has been true since Mengel. What we don’t agree with is that mutations can create the new information necessary to change one type of animal into another, such as a chimp into a human. If you read “Genetic Entropy & the Mystery of the Genome” John C. Sanford you will see than geneticists have known for decades that harmful mutations outnumber beneficial mutations by one million to one. A true understanding of genetics proves that the creation of new types of animals is simply impossible.
Brian: “For instance we would expect to find intermediate organisms and we do (despite ridiculous claims by Creationists to the contrary).”
Roger Lewin is an evolutionist scientist and he disagrees with you. He wrote “Bones of Contention” and though he remains an evolutionist, he demonstrates that the fossil evidence is a joke.
Brian: “Evolution is an empirical science even though it is not one where experimentation rules the day.”
No, it’s an unscientific ideology even by the scientific establishment’s own definition of science. It’s junk science like Keynesian economics is junk economics.
My understanding of the Austrian objection to empiricism is that it applies to the idea that the techniques of natural science should be applied to economics.
1) The natural sciences use experimental results to develop theory because they are examining a subject they know very little about. On the other hand, economics studies people, something we know a great deal about already. We are studying ourselves.
2) Natural sciences use lab experiments in order to control variables and insure that just the variables they are studying change. Economics cannot be conducted with controlled experiments. All of history is its data and historical data is so vast and complex that peddlers of snake oil can always find some evidence for their position if they are selective enough. That’s why Mises insisted that history cannot be understood unless approached with sound theory to create order from the chaos.
3) A single experiment in the natural sciences is sometimes enough to destroy established theory. That is reasonable because physics operates the same way all of the time. Gravity has always had the same properties as far as we know. It will operate the same way in different places at different times. So it is reasonable to extrapolate from individual experiments. The subject of economics, humans, acts differently at different times and places and under different institutions. So extrapolating from small pieces of evidence, the way many mainstream economists attempt, is impossible.
4) The natural sciences uses math extensively because the coefficients of variables, such as the speed of light, never change except under extreme conditions. Attempts at using math in economics has failed miserably. The multi-equation macro models of the 1960′s are a perfect example. They were a disaster and continue to be an embarrassment to the field.
On the other hand, Austrian economics is empirical in the broad sense because it is based on observation of how humans think and act, today as well as throughout history. That’s why Mises called his masterpiece “Human Action” and not economics. For example, the Austrian Business Cycle theory came about because so many economists since Cantillon had observed that expansion of credit and money causes an increase in capital goods production more than in consumer goods production. Also, the capital goods industries have always been hurt the worst in depressions. The ABCT is an attempt to explain those phenomena which have been observed by many people over centuries.
A single episode, or several episodes in historical data are not sufficient to overthrow theory in economics. Austrians might argue that the data was misinterpreted. But if a theory in Austrian econ failed to find any data to support it at all, very few Austrian economists would stick to the theory in the way that Keynesian economists have clung to theirs in spite of decades of data that refute it.
Jörg Guido Hülsmann wrote in his “Mises: the Last Knight of Liberalism” about Menger that “His purpose was to demonstrate that the properties and laws of economic phenomena result from these empirically ascertainable “elements of the human economy” such as individual human needs, individual human knowledge, ownership and acquisition of individual quantities of goods, time, and individual error.[11] Menger’s great achievement in Principles consisted in identifying these elements for analysis and explaining how they cause more-complex market phenomena such as prices. He called this the “empirical method,” emphasizing that it was the same method that worked so well in the natural sciences.”
Nevertheless, mainstream Keynesian economics is not so disastrougly wrong as it is because it borrows techniques from the natural sciences. It’s wrong because its assumptions and reasoning are faulty. It’s not empirical enough. If it were more empirical, it would have such absurd assumptions.
I think it’s a shame that Austrians aren’t more inclined to use econometrics because with sound theory, the resulting models could be very powerful. A few Austrians have done limited work with econometrics and the results are very impressive. Just search on this site for empirical evidence.
Mises wrote all of this and more in the first chapters of “Human Action” and did a much better job. Hayek also writes about it in many of his books.
What then is the true equivalent of evolution then, fundamentalist? If species can’t change than all species must have been present from the start. How long ago was that? Considering large scale disasters can cull huge numbers of critters and cause many species to go extinct it could not have been that long ago.
What we don’t agree with is that mutations can create the new information necessary to change one type of animal into another, such as a chimp into a human
But nobody believes chimps turn into humans.
If you can pick your nose for one second, you can pick your nose for ten seconds.
[My point, Jaycephus, is that that is actually a very good list of reasons people believe in creationism]
Fundamentalist,
You too keep ignoring certain details. You speak of changing from a chimp to a human as being impossible.
Well, first off, nobody has said that they did. Rather, it is said only that chimps and humans have a common ancestor from some 10-20 million years ago.
You also didn’t respond to the fact of existing ring species. This is one easy way to explain how different species can change from one into another.
But this of course messes with the usual concepts of species as being somehow distinct organisms. In a ring species, there are gradual differences between neighboring organisms (all alive today), but they can still interbreed. BUT, while 1-2, 2-3, 3-4, etc. can all interbreed, 1-4 cannot.
Once two groups cannot interbreed any longer, change between the groups happens faster. And when the intermediary goes extinct, it appears that 1 and 4 are separate species with no “missing link” between. It’s simply that 2 and 3 went extinct.
This can be seen in some gulls and some salamanders. You don’t even need any fossils to show this. You just need to go and take a look for yourself. It’s all happening in our own time.
“That’s baloney. I’ve read him and I understand him perfectly well. I can also map Austrian Economic theory onto other philosophical theories of knowledge. Logic works the same in these systems.”
If you say so…
“Problem is that some of these philosophical systems are just plain wrong. The logical positivists are wrong.”
Indeed…
“Mises had some pretty ridiculous things to say about other sciences. I don’t recall right now but they were pretty embarrassing. Which isn’t surprising. He’s around 50 years behind the times on the philosophy of science. ”
Like?
Very nice exposition of the Austrian methodology Fundamentalist.
@Inquisitor and Fundamentalist
Taking Fundamentalists last post i dont see any difference in our position, the only difference is in our understanding of what empiricism is.
“On the other hand, Austrian economics is empirical in the broad sense because it is based on observation of how humans think and act, today as well as throughout history.”
That is empiriricism, you look at something in the world(preferably controlled experiments with lots of data) and get from this to explanations about what is going on.
But the important point for actually doing science is, that the explanation predicts something about the world, that can be checked against events in the world in some way, it might be even in a very remote way.
Austrians fulfill that condition as well, e.g. Mises claimed long before the fall of socialism, that it would fail. If it had not failed and instead prospered and drawn millions of immigrants to workers paradise Mises would have been refuted and one could have been certain, that were some error in his thinking or in the axioms.
Theology has no problem with these conditions, because its not supposed to explain anything in the material world. They have their axioms somehow written in the bible and conclude things from that.
The reason why this “predicting something” is so important are invisible pink unicorns, sugar pills, healing stones, spoon bending and faith healers.
All this stuff rest on some strange axioms added a little faulty thinking and then people go aroung claiming, that they do something special and earning money with this. If they ideas are correct, there is no problem with this, but if they are wrong they are fooling themselves and others to waste resources on things which are untrue, which in case of faith healers and sugar pills might actually be life threatening.
The only solution is to require them to name conditions under which something in the world behaves differently as is expected from so far established knowledge. Thats the only way to nail them down, because even if you find a fault in their arguments, they can counter this by modifying their axioms.
And this requirement needs to be applied to all sciences or ideologies or other ideas that claim to have found some kind of truth about the material world.
Austrians fulfill this requirement, they do predict something about this world(nearly every second day some comment on mises.org claims, that Obama will make the recession more serious by his actions) and if one day conditions would fit their requirements, but the results would be different, everybody would know, that their is an error(e.g. if central banks meddling with money would stop, but the boom-bust cycle would continue in the same way as before, we would know that austrians are wrong to attribute boom bust nearly soley to money meddling.)
@fundamentalist
About evolution, we know for certain, that 5 billion years ago there were only single cell organisms on earth. Now we are here. Something must have happened since the last 5 billion years to cause that change.
Possible culprits, who have not been proven innocent , so far:
-micro evolution
-god
-spaghetti monster
-shiva
-zeus
-allah
What is wrong to assume, that it was micro evolution?
@Inquisitor and Fundamentalist
Taking Fundamentalists last post i dont see any difference in our position, the only difference is in our understanding of what empiricism is.
“On the other hand, Austrian economics is empirical in the broad sense because it is based on observation of how humans think and act, today as well as throughout history.”
That is empiriricism, you look at something in the world(preferably controlled experiments with lots of data) and get from this to explanations about what is going on.
But the important point for actually doing science is, that the explanation predicts something about the world, that can be checked against events in the world in some way, it might be even in a very remote way.
Austrians fulfill that condition as well, e.g. Mises claimed long before the fall of socialism, that it would fail. If it had not failed and instead prospered and drawn millions of immigrants to workers paradise Mises would have been refuted and one could have been certain, that were some error in his thinking or in the axioms.
Theology has no problem with these conditions, because its not supposed to explain anything in the material world. They have their axioms somehow written in the bible and conclude things from that.
The reason why this “predicting something” is so important are invisible pink unicorns, sugar pills, healing stones, spoon bending and faith healers.
All this stuff rest on some strange axioms added a little faulty thinking and then people go aroung claiming, that they do something special and earning money with this. If they ideas are correct, there is no problem with this, but if they are wrong they are fooling themselves and others to waste resources on things which are untrue, which in case of faith healers and sugar pills might actually be life threatening.
The only solution is to require them to name conditions under which something in the world behaves differently as is expected from so far established knowledge. Thats the only way to nail them down, because even if you find a fault in their arguments, they can counter this by modifying their axioms.
And this requirement needs to be applied to all sciences or ideologies or other ideas that claim to have found some kind of truth about the material world.
Austrians fulfill this requirement, they do predict something about this world(nearly every second day some comment on mises.org claims, that Obama will make the recession more serious by his actions) and if one day conditions would fit their requirements, but the results would be different, everybody would know, that their is an error(e.g. if central banks meddling with money would stop, but the boom-bust cycle would continue in the same way as before, we would know that austrians are wrong to attribute boom bust nearly soley to money meddling.)
@fundamentalist
About evolution, we know for certain, that 5 billion years ago there were only single cell organisms on earth. Now we are here. Something must have happened since the last 5 billion years to cause that change.
Possible culprits, who have not been proven innocent , so far:
-micro evolution
-god
-spaghetti monster
-shiva
-zeus
-allah
What is wrong to assume, that it was micro evolution?
@Inquisitor and Fundamentalist
Taking Fundamentalists last post i dont see any difference in our position, the only difference is in our understanding of what empiricism is.
“On the other hand, Austrian economics is empirical in the broad sense because it is based on observation of how humans think and act, today as well as throughout history.”
That is empiriricism, you look at something in the world(preferably controlled experiments with lots of data) and get from this to explanations about what is going on.
But the important point for actually doing science is, that the explanation predicts something about the world, that can be checked against events in the world in some way, it might be even in a very remote way.
Austrians fulfill that condition as well, e.g. Mises claimed long before the fall of socialism, that it would fail. If it had not failed and instead prospered and drawn millions of immigrants to workers paradise Mises would have been refuted and one could have been certain, that were some error in his thinking or in the axioms.
Theology has no problem with these conditions, because its not supposed to explain anything in the material world. They have their axioms somehow written in the bible and conclude things from that.
The reason why this “predicting something” is so important are invisible pink unicorns, sugar pills, healing stones, spoon bending and faith healers.
All this stuff rest on some strange axioms added a little faulty thinking and then people go aroung claiming, that they do something special and earning money with this. If they ideas are correct, there is no problem with this, but if they are wrong they are fooling themselves and others to waste resources on things which are untrue, which in case of faith healers and sugar pills might actually be life threatening.
The only solution is to require them to name conditions under which something in the world behaves differently as is expected from so far established knowledge. Thats the only way to nail them down, because even if you find a fault in their arguments, they can counter this by modifying their axioms.
And this requirement needs to be applied to all sciences or ideologies or other ideas that claim to have found some kind of truth about the material world.
Austrians fulfill this requirement, they do predict something about this world(nearly every second day some comment on mises.org claims, that Obama will make the recession more serious by his actions) and if one day conditions would fit their requirements, but the results would be different, everybody would know, that their is an error(e.g. if central banks meddling with money would stop, but the boom-bust cycle would continue in the same way as before, we would know that austrians are wrong to attribute boom bust nearly soley to money meddling.)
@fundamentalist
About evolution, we know for certain, that 5 billion years ago there were only single cell organisms on earth. Now we are here. Something must have happened since the last 5 billion years to cause that change.
Possible culprits, who have not been proven innocent , so far:
-micro evolution
-god
-spaghetti monster
-shiva
-zeus
-allah
What is wrong to assume, that it was micro evolution?
Stupid browser, some mod here?
One of my favorite articles I have seen posted here. But maybe that’s the physicist in me talking.
Florian, ‘empirical in the broad sense’ meant that Mises et al., by observing humans in action and history, discovered certain axioms that took account of the non-determinism of human behavior and the complexity of social phenomena. That is very different than broad observation leading to the discovery of positivist laws governing human behavior and history. This is why Mises was adamant in labeling economics a deductive vs. inductive science.
@Reason
Sorry, i can only see a technical difference, no fundamental.
Newton and others observed apples falling, planets moving and such stuff and concluded for example F=g*m1*m2/r**2 and F=m*a.
Mises and others observed human behavior and concluded certain axioms.
Both tried to deductively draw conclusions from their axioms, like the expected movement of massive bodies relative to each other or the expected effects upon a society by having socialistic or libertarian laws.
The technical difference is that, from that on physicist have a huge advantage, because they can easily check whether their deductive conclusions are in accordance with observation and thereby check whether their reasoning and their axioms are correct – and found that both have to be improved.
Economists have to be honest at that point(which keynisians arent), that a check of there axioms and an improvement of their knowledge is difficult to do, because they cannot as easily or often not at all check their conclusions against reality and thereby have a hard time to find errors in axioms or reasoning.
If economists wouldnt have this technical difficulties(meaning they have a lot of copies of earth and can manipulate politics there without the inhabitants noticing and lack any ethics), economics would be rather similar to physics in many aspects, most noticeable would be, that economist would no longer argue about most stuff, that was first thought of 200 years ago, because experiments would have settled arguments long ago.
If physicist would not be able to experiment in the same way, that economists arent able too, then physics would be as a mess as economics with a lot of different schools claiming that the others are just fools or corrupt and with little techniques applicable to real world.
This is by the way observable in frontier physics, the discussions remind often of debates between people of different religions about whose religion is the true one. As a colleague of mine said:”Whatever the result of my measurement, i can find a theorist who will say, that this result was exactly what was to be expected and that others who disagree simply didnt understand the whole stuff.”
The grounding in observation or experiment is fundamental for keeping science from turning into religion, therefore it should never be ignored. (But relying on pseudoexperiments and -observation like some ecoonomists seem to do is wrong either.)
Florian,
Austrian theory is non-inductive as recognized in human action. This is part of the basic structure of reality- like gravity. There is no need to even hope for a discovery of positivist means for economics. It is impossible unless the laws of the universe somehow change. This reality does not make economics lesser, just different.
That watching an apple fall from a tree hundreds of times can lead to the discovery of physical equations does have a parallel in watching how humans react to having an apple fall on their heads hundreds of times. But the difference is that there are no physical equations that predict human behavior because they are human and each moment changes the environment, exogenous and endogenous to the subject.
At the same time, there are constancies in the universe afforded humans- how else could humans successfully use means to attain ends? And if this is so, how can one account for human unpredictability-yet-purposefulness in a universe of physical laws determining change where the use of physics cannot prove nor disprove human determinism?
Answer, the logic of human action.
Reason,
“Austrian theory is non-inductive as recognized in human action. This is part of the basic structure of reality- like gravity. There is no need to even hope for a discovery of positivist means for economics. It is impossible unless the laws of the universe somehow change. ”
No, the laws of the universe need not change, look at gravity. The laws of the universe didnt change, but newtons description of gravity seems to be wrong. Thats not fault of newton, but of the data he was using, which was only short range low density matter interaction. But if matter density increases or distances increases newton is more and more of.
Same is true for F=m*a in terms of higher velocity.
But both isnt newtons fault, it simple is due to the limited observation and experimental data he had access to, the error was only visible in a wider set of data.
Economics could potentially contain similar problems, since they base their axioms on observations of rather small amount of humans(compared to the numbers that ever have lived and hopefully will live) under a limited set of circumstances(either personal observation or written sources, since most of humans who lived so far were illiterate, this is a possible source of errors).
The simplest thing would be, that, that their axioms cover not all humans, but only a high percentage, this couldnt be noticed by economists. It might be possible, that under most certain circumstances this is irrelevant, so economy work as expected, but under some rare circumstances this by this humans not covered by the axioms cause a completely different result.
An example of this problem might be the dispute between anarcho-capitalism and minimal state. As some austrians tend to favor one side over the other it is obviously impossible to use deductive reasoning to decide which side is wrong.
“This reality does not make economics lesser, just different.”
No not just different, lesser in the sense of precision. Gravity constant is measured with 8 digits precision, error less than 0.00001 %, economic output and change of economic output can be measured at best with 1 digit precision, error about or even larger than 10%. And economic freedom, practically the most important idea advocated by economic science can only be measured in a very vague sense.
With physics is perfectly ok(if you use youre own money), to give some physicist a few hundred billion dollars in exchange for a trip to mars – they can deliver.
But it makes absolutely no sense to give economists a few billion dollars in exchange for saving the economy – many of them do not know how to deliver and even if, afterwards they would disagree about whether they succeeded or not.
The only thing one can get from economics is a general advise, which is more economic freedom is far superior to less, but any advise going far more into details is wrong because economics cannot achieve that precision due to the technical difficulties of acquiring data to test and refine knowledge.
It almost does not matter how Mises arrived at his axioms. Rather, it is the irrefutability of the axioms, that they can stand on their own, that is important.
Do humans act? Is rationality (not the quality per instance) fundamental to the human makeup? Therefore, do humans act purposively?
These questions have to be answered in the affirmitive. Any attempt to negate such premises is a contradiction.
Precision in getting data is very important to Austrian methodology to the extent that having correct data will point to the right theoretical explanation. Having accurate data by itself does not reveal economic laws.
Giving money to physicists vs. bureaucrats cannot represent an empirical test like that in the lab. There are way too many variables to account for. And over time, these same variables change, are muted, or deleted. No one even knows their own mind ahead of time.
Besides, the confidence that such a social experiement could reveal economic laws relies on certain axioms that are at odds with the most fundamental axioms of human action.
Physics is useless for determining economics, but all sciences may help determine which Austrian theory correctly applies to a specific event. Precision, by its nature, is suboordinated to axiomatic deduction.
Do you think that every economic proposition is merely hypothetical? Or, now are you ready to admit that there is knowledge other than that of the empirical, testable?
“Do humans act? Is rationality (not the quality per instance) fundamental to the human makeup? Therefore, do humans act purposively?
These questions have to be answered in the affirmitive. Any attempt to negate such premises is a contradiction. ”
Why are there only yes and no as answers allowed for?
A total negation like “no human ever acts purposively.” is of course a contradiction if uttered by a human. But already “i act purposefully and the rest of mankind doesnt” isnt contradicting anything, except maybe ones experience, but you want to rule out any observation.
Asking very roughly, what about if 95% of humans act purposefully 80% of the time and the rest 5% act purposefully only 10% of the time, do you think this would be completely irrelvant to the conclusions of something derived deductively from “humans act purposefully”?
“Giving money to physicists vs. bureaucrats cannot represent an empirical test like that in the lab.”
This wasnt a suggestion for a lab experiment, but a description what i think to be sensible allocation of money. If economists say “with x billion dollars we can shorten the recession” they are at least dishonest, because they do not know when the depression began, what factors in what way determine the length and when it ends, because their data is simply to imprecise to answer these question in any reliable way, so their claim, that they can shorten the recession is empty. If physicist say “with x billion dollars we can put a man on mars”, they are at worst dishonest about x in an order of magnitude, but getting to mars they can manage, because their knowledge is precise enough due to precise enough data.
“Precision, by its nature, is suboordinated to axiomatic deduction.”
Not if the axioms are only a approximation of reality.
“Do you think that every economic proposition is merely hypothetical?”
No, because i think most humans in decisions that are relevant for economics most of the time act purposefully. And that i conclude from observation.
“Or, now are you ready to admit that there is knowledge other than that of the empirical, testable?”
But i think its wrong to conclude that the part missing between “most” and “all” will be irrelevant under all circumstances.
Forgot to answer last question:
“Or, now are you ready to admit that there is knowledge other than that of the empirical, testable?”
There is no knowledge that is independent of observation, because to process any knowledge at all one assumes that the own thinking process is not in that way malfunctioning, that what one remembers to have thought a few seconds ago is vastly different from what one actually thought a few seconds ago.
Since one has no way to determine whether this assumption is true or not one can never be certain whether any conclusion ones mind thinks up is true, because to check whether or not its true one has to use ones memory to recheck that the conclusions was reached by correct application of logic.
So even 1+1=2 is only true if one can get from 1+ to =2 without ones mind malfunctioning seriously on the way without one remembering it.
The only way to solve this problem is to assume, that ones mind does not malfunction in this way and check this assumption regularly against other input.
(e.g. that the outside world is roughly as expected from memory.)
So to ascertain that ones mind is actually able to uncover any truths at all, one has to rely on observation. So all knowledge rest upon observation, but it can differ vastly how much observation it rest upon.
Eric: “Well, first off, nobody has said that they did. Rather, it is said only that chimps and humans have a common ancestor from some 10-20 million years ago.â€
That’s simply not true. The standard model of evolution is that humans came from chimps. I’m astounded at how little evolutionists know about evolution. I’m constantly having to teach what evolution really is. But for the sake of argument, what kind of creature was the common ancestor if it wasn’t monkey-like?
Eric: “You also didn’t respond to the fact of existing ring species. This is one easy way to explain how different species can change from one into another.â€
Why comment on mere speculation? Evolutionists are full of could’ve would’ve should’ve, but it’s not evidence. It’s pure speculation about what might have happened.
Eric: “It’s all happening in our own time.â€
Then where is your evidence for the intermediate species of the past? If the theory of biological evolution is true, we should dig up bones of intermediate species everywhere. Why is the collection of such bones, many of which are in dispute, so incredibly small? Roger Lewin wrote that all of the evidence for human evolution will fit on a single table.
Mr. Richards’ article was indeed masterful. It is young scholars such as this gentleman who reduce my rare visits to the doldrums even further. His words are my evidence — there is hope for liberty and the cloudy future may be brighter than we sometimes fear.
Regarding the evolution of this blog, I am not particularly concerned what date and time some divine Providence may have tapped homo erectus with a sense of self. My issue is semantics on whether “evolution is a fact.” That sounds a lot like “physics is a fact” or “meteorology is a fact.” It is poor usage. A fact is, “Colonel Mustard used the revolver in the parlor.” And so the “fact” under dispute is whether my great, great-times-several-million, great grandfather was a chimp. I have no issue if he was. When I hear that “evolution is a fact,” the usage perturbs me. It seems to smack of provocation, rather than being precise or direct.
Perhaps I’m thinking too much like a journalist or a lawyer, but evolution is a process, a theory, an explanation. Of history, of physiology. And this theory or process delivers me quite a logical explanation of how a rainy, violent planet, covered in mold and rock gave way to microbes and to yinlongs, gave way to Mozart and to Yeats, and gave way to me and to you.
I embrace the explanation, and I think it is correct; it does not diminish the possibility that a spirit could exist within us. It does not diminish the possibility that one day a spark was struck upon one or more smelly grunts. I just hope that the scene was more picturesque than a boring black monolith standing amid Strauss. Nevertheless, evolution works for me. But so does God. How else can I imagine who kick-started this whole thing? Whose loaded gun went “bang,” marking Day-1 of the evolutionary calendar?
Alas, mises.org is focused on more pragmatic matters, and rightly so.
Before too long, hopefully not too soon either(!), I may find the answer. And if I don’t, more’s the pity.
Florian Kren: “What is wrong to assume, that it was micro evolution?”
There is nothing wrong with assuming it. Just don’t call it science. Call it what it is–an assumption. The science of micro evolution is well established, having been begun by an opponent of Darwin, Gregor Mendel. Darwin proposed that micro evolution (such as changes in dog species) could cause macro evolution (such as a change from a dog to a horse). He predicted that fossil evidence of such change would would confirm his theory in the future and that if such evidence couldn’t be found then he was wrong. Mendel proposed that the degree of change possible through micro evolution was limited and could not produce new kinds of animals. Almost 200 years later, some evidence for macro evolution has been offered, but the amount is very disappointing even for devout evolutionists. The amount of evidence is so small, in fact, that it forced Stephen Gould to resurrect the “hopeful monster” theory of evolution to explain away the lack of evidence. Since the 1970′s a great deal of effort has gone into explaining away the lack of evidence for the theory rather than just admitting the theory is wrong.
That’s exactly how Marxists and Keynesians work. Marxists spend all of their time explaining why all attempts at implementing socialism have failed. Keynesians try to explain why their models can’t predict anything accurately.
Florian: “That is empiriricism, you look at something in the world(preferably controlled experiments with lots of data) and get from this to explanations about what is going on.”
The difference is that in natural sciences the scientists attempt to approach experiments with no preconceived theory in mind. They run their experiments and build theory from the results. They have to work that way because they are ignorant of the subject matter. The method is inductive.
Some people want economists to apply the inductive method by running thousands of econometric models without any theory and building up theory based on the results. A lot of people have tried just that approach over the past 50 years and the results are very disappointing. They’re contradictory, often trivial, and sometime just plain nonsense.
The problem is that economics cannot use controlled experiments, at least not for the really important concepts. Some trivial results have been produced with computer labs. Other than that, all data is historical data and it is vast and complex. Just choosing a small enough sample to make analysis possible requires some sort of theory to begin with.
And controlled experiments aren’t as necessary in economics as they are in natural sciences because natural science studies non-human objects and laws about which they are ignorant. In economics, we are studying ourselves. We are not ignorant about human behavior.
Austrian econ is not inductive, but deductive. It builds sound basic axioms about human behavior through introspection, reason, and observation, then uses those axioms to deduce principles of behavior in the field of economics.
The differences may be subtle, but the consequences are very serious.
Strange, fundamentalist, you have no problems understanding economic evolution yet can’t grasp biological evolution. Free marketers have problems showing there’s no Master Planner in economics there are just individuals who micromanage their lives and change to suit the environment accordingly and the accumulated actions of million of players can give the appearance of planning from a distance but this unity disappears when one gets close. Futhermore, free marketers can also show how wonderfully the overall economy changes with time because those who correctly change are rewarded and those who don’t disappear. They will also like to show a free market economy will barely resemble its counterpart a century ago because of the all the subtle changes.
My question again: if you see evolution as false then what is true? God-guided evolution? No. That’s still evolution and makes God less in control of the Universe. Would be it a recent special creation by God with humans as the focal point where the fate of the Universe is determined by the morality of the human race?
BTW: In the Top 11 Myths About Evoluton. Your notion of humans descending from chimps and not from a common ancestors must come from creationist rags.
Fundamentalist,
“I’m not trying to bait anyone into a discussion over evolution/creation, but I see similar problems with the scientific establishment in that debate.”
It’s clear now that this was false. You were baiting. It’s quite clear also that you have been spoon-fed these “problems” you see.
It’s also clear that you don’t understand what science is. It’s you who is assuming that “macro evolution” can’t occur. That despite all the hard core evidence that it has occurred that is quite independent from Darwin’s theory.
There is no “macro” and “micro” evolution just like there is no “macro” and “micro” economics. What you call macro evolution is a simple result of lots of micro evolution. It’s not an assumption but a deduction. A deduction that is supported by an overwhelming amount of evidence.
Just remember that you don’t learn science in church, or from creationists and you’ll be fine.
BTW, your understanding of the philosophy of science is abysmal. Science does not operate the way you think it does, at all.
There really is no point in discussing this with you since your critical thinking skills have been crippled by your “education.”
Franklin,
You are wrong in your understanding of the science of biology. You are confused because of layman’s usage of terms. The theory of natural selection is not equivalent to “evolution”.
What you just described is the “Theory of Natural Selection”. It is the explanation of why evolution occurred. Evolution itself is a fact.
Biologists have gone over this again and again. So I’m not going to give you another detailed exposition. Here read this.
Do you get upset when geologists claim as fact that the earth is more than the 4000 years the creationists claim?
I don’t even like to refer to the Theory of Natural Selection as “Evolution” because it confuses the layman due to the possibility of equivocation between that and the main meaning of the word.
Here’s a wiki article, “Evolution as Theory and Fact” that speaks to clearing up this confusion. It’s clear that anyone who says “Evolution is just a Theory” in order to claim that it is doubtful whether organisms have evolved over time, is using a fallacy. The fallacy of equivocation between the different meanings of the word evolution.
The link: “Evolution as Theory and Fact”
“There is no need to even hope for a discovery of positivist means for economics.”
Same is true for all scientific disciplines. None of them operate on positivist means and none of them operate on apriorist means. Anyone who thinks this way is stuck in the 19th and 20th centuries.
Florian made many points that I was going to make. Apriorism isn’t enough. Nor does science operate purely on experimentation. Drop these 19th century notions of science and non-science.
Humans are fallible and the whole point of science is to reduce error by checking and rechecking against reality. All sciences are empirical. Math is not science, but a tool of science used to reduce error.
When you claim that your school of economics is not empirical (even when you use empirical methods) then you are saying that it is not a science, but a religion. Sorry but that’s just the way the cookie crumbles. Current day usage of the word empirical is not the same as what Mises used.
The fact that 19th century scientific wars still rage in minor corners of philosophy, and english departments does not mean anything to me. The same is true about creationism.
I cannot stress strongly enough how much damage this claim does to acceptance Austrian economics. Austrian economics is empirical and it is Keynesian economics that does not conform to good scientific practice.
The problem with claims to apriorism is that one can make mistakes in both ones assumptions and ones logic. One cannot rely on these only. One should never limit the scope of ones criticisms in science.
“Because I am sensing ignorance of how the terms are used here…”
Well you are wrong.
” Mises certainly believed he was theorizing about the real world, and his theories certainly had empirical content… but he never denied this.”
Same with the Catholic Church. Every religion I am familiar with believes they are theorizing about the real world. That is not what makes them empirical or not.
Mises theories need empirical support whether he likes that or not. Rothbard spends much of his time providing empirical support for Austrian theories in his writings.
It’s just ridiculous to claim that economics isn’t empirical. Mises entire enterprise is empirical from start to end. He didn’t just deduce that bank runs would occur. He first observed (or read about) the phenomenon. He then had to use empirical methods to find out how banks operate. He didn’t just deduce it from “I think therefore I am” nor even “Men Act”. That’s a stupifying simplification of what actually was done by him.
Deduction plays a very important role in all the sciences. The difference is that some of the sciences one can easily run experiments to test ones deductions. It’s not so easy in economics and likewise biology (evolution), as in physics or chemistry. That doesn’t mean that evolutionary biology is a “non-empirical science”.
” He did deny that testing theories in the positivist fashion made no sense in the field of economics. The two claims run independently of one another…”
Look, I’ve read Mises and I don’t need you to repeat or interpret it for me. I understand how he used the term “empiricism” and what it meant in his time period. The problem is that it does not have the same meaning today and other advances in scientific philosophy like pan-critical rationalism have occurred since Mises.
Empiricism is much broader than just the positivists. Mises was correct in many of his criticisms of the positivists. At the same time he was operating under his own misunderstandings. For example he assumed that behaviorism was the correct way to work in the field of animal psychology. Which is not true. The positivist program doesn’t work there either. Behaviorism has been abandoned.
Mises’s attacks on positivism are correct. Problem is that we have moved on. Everyone recognizes that positivism is wrong and there are much better criticisms of positivism than Mises provided.
The word empiricism now means something different and much broader than what Mises understood. In fact, it had actually been in the process of moving on in Mises’s time but I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt that he was ignorant of it.
People were doing good science long before they understood the philosophical basis for the success. Likewise with Mises.
Brian: “Do you get upset when geologists claim as fact that the earth is more than the 4000 years the creationists claim?”
Of course not. And that is precisely my point. I accept that statement and proposition as “a fact.” I would only get irked if a geologist says, “Geology is a fact.” That seems tautological to me, and it deserves a, “Huh? Fine, I guess my garden is ‘a fact’ too. What precisely are you trying to assert? Spit it out, man.”
It may seem like hair-splitting, and I certainly am a layman, but just expected more specificity and context.
Thanks for the link you referenced.
Cheers.
F.
Thanks for the nice article. Having a background in physics myself I enjoyed reading the piece from a fellow physicist.
Also I subscribe to the bashing of “you cannot know anything you cannot empirically verify” fallacy, and of Keynesianism in general – the only way in which it can be tought of as science is with the many other theories that have been shown to be false too.
Yet allow me to suggest a modification to the reasoning. I find it a weak point to argue along “Economics is a science in the same sense that mathematics and logic are sciences. Its claims are based on logical deduction from indisputable axioms, and may be illustrated historically, but never verified or falsified experimentally.”
The scientific criteria as formulated by Karl Popper, hold that a theory is to be considered scientific as long as it can either be proven, or leaves itself open to falsification.
Now the “let’s prove” avenue is open to mathematics and all its branches (logic, computer science, …), which begin by constructing all the objects and tools – all the world they talk about.
The issue with the real world is that our knowledge of it is by definition too imperfect to be able to create a logical construct that could be shown to match 1:1 with reality.
So in order to address real world in a scientific manner we have to take the other path, and open our theories (hypotheses, in fact) to falsification.
Now of course Keynesians have neither done that (cf. “animal spirits” – how could one falsify that?), nor acknowledged the falsification when it was demonstrated (spending, wages, whatever). Demasking their stance as pseudoscience is well deserved.
Yet let me repeat. By positioning economics as “logical deduction from indisputable axioms, [... never to be] falsified experimentally”, we also severe it from the real world.
If we keep true to the scientific honesty principle, any outcomes from such an economics would apply only to the gedanken world it operates upon.
And in an attempt to “map” the results to the real world we’d be faced with the same challenge of opening it up to falsification, to keep our method scientific.
Hope this makes some sense.
Franklin,
You were responding to my statement. I didn’t say anything remotely similar to “Geology is a fact”. Nor is it hair splitting. The word evolution in the context of my sentence does not mean an area of study. It’s a reference to the fact that organisms have changed over time.
You merely picked an incorrect meaning of the word. One that one one uses.
There is no disciple called “Evolution”. There is one called “Biology” or “Evolutionary biology”. I didn’t however say “Biology is a fact” or “Evolutionary biology is a fact”.
Geology is to erosion as “Evolutionary Biology” is to evolution.
I’d certainly say “Erosion is a fact.” to someone who was claiming that mountains don’t change. To someone claiming that the hills of the Catskills were never mountains, and that “so called erosion” only works on the micro level moving dirt back and forth with no cumulative effects.
I have watched the long digression into the creationism/evolution debate with interest, but as much as I was itching to weigh in on the micro/macroevolution red herring, and the myth of the so-called ‘species barrier’ , I resisted it, as the entire digression is rather remote from the nature of this blog.
However, I do think it is appropriate in this forum to to hear what Mises said about the question, characteristically at the exact nexus where Darwin himself was at his most coy – the question of human evolution.
“Man is descended from nonhuman ancestors who lacked this [mental} ability. These ancestors were endowed with some potentiality which in the course of ages evolution converted them into reasonable beings. This transformation was achieved by the influence of a changing cosmic environment operating on succeeding generations. Hence the empiricist concludes that the fundamental principles of reasoning are an outcome of experience and represent an adaptation of man to the conditions of his environment’.
Human action , page 33.
And again, on page 35:
‘The human mind is not a tabula rasa on which the external events write their own history. It is equipped with a set of tools for grasping reality. Man acquired these tools, i.e. the logical structure of his mind, in the course of his evolution from an amoeba (sic) to his present state. But these tools are logically prior to any experience.’.
My comment: Interestingly, his reference to the empiricist is not dismissive in this context – here he is epistemologically delineating where the empirical sciences such as biology stop, and praxeology, a necessarily a priori science, starts – and making sure that the ‘ultimate givens’ ( Mises’s term) of praxeology are not inconsistent with the knowledge of the biology of the human brain, as revealed by other scientific disciplines.
As for the amoeba reference, while technically incorrect, I’m sure we can forgive him that bit of literary license – ‘single eukaroytic cell’ hardly scans well.
SO it seems to me from these quotes that the entire body of Mises’s work stands on a foundation which explicitly acknowledges evolution and natural selection.
David,
Yes, Mises is mostly sensible. I really wish I had that embarrassing Mises quote, because someone threw it up in my face. I went to the book where it came from and read it in context. I had to admit that Mises was wrong in that case. Embarrassingly wrong. Maybe it’s a blessing I can’t find it.
“The difference is that in natural sciences the scientists attempt to approach experiments with no preconceived theory in mind. They run their experiments and build theory from the results. They have to work that way because they are ignorant of the subject matter. The method is inductive.”
No.
With a lot of stuff natural scientist have a fair idea about the subject matter. And that in a literal sense, matter is made of atoms made up of inseperable gluons interacting by gravity, elektro weak and strong interaction. Its just calculating from that knowledge the behaviour of a sun is difficult.
Science uses deduction as far as possible, then uses induction to get new input and from that deduce again something.
“Austrian econ is not inductive, but deductive.”
“The differences may be subtle, but the consequences are very serious.”
No, this difference is irrelevant.
What is relevant, is to approach a problem in a way which is supported by experience.
When you have a complex system like for example the sun and want to understand how it operates you have basically 2 options. You can either measure what the properities of the sun or you can use youre knowledge of atoms to calculate the sun.
The first approach is easy to do, but has the risk that you do not see any pattern at all or miss some important subpattern due to limited data and problems to do experiments.
)
The second approach is hard or even impossible to do perfectly, but one knows that conclusions gained from this side are as reliable as the knowledge one has about atoms, which is very reliable.
One can separate the two only for practical purposes, but in the end they must not differ and any difference indicates something was misunderstood.
Therefore one should always apply both approaches, because one of them is a way to check the other.(This is empirical knowledge
So in case of a complex system, the approach supported by experience is to try to look at the full system and at the same time to look at the subsystems and calculate from them the full system behavior.
If applied to economics one should look at all those BNPs and other stuff and try to understand something there and at the same time understand the system from the individual human.
So the correct empirical approach to economics includes an attempt to simulate individual human behavior and deduce from that how groups of humans and the whole society behave.
For this the best method of simulation is needed. Since human behavior is complex we need something with a high calculation power and a program, that operates on the simulation device that is designed to simulate human behavior.
Whether something is able to simulate one can determine by looking whether the simulation can predict human behavior.
We know from empirical knowledge, that the only device, that might have enough calculation power to simulate human behavior is the human brain – at least is capable of operating a human.
And also from empirical knowledge – (micro) evolution – we know that the human brain was trained for tens of thousands of years to predict correctly what the guy with the big club is going to do next.
Therefore for the task of simulating or understanding individual economic behavior and to conclude from that how groups of humans behave, a human is suited well. So the empirical approach leads to the conclusion, that to understand economics one important thing is to find an intelligent human give him pencil and paper and ask him to think about how economy functions.
Of course we could get a lot of idiotic writings that way, therefore comparison with observation is still necessary, to decide who might have simulated human behavior well(e.g. Mises, prdiction for socialism indicates this) and who didn’t succeed(e.g. Marx).
But having humans think about how humans behave economically is a sensible approach from an empiristic point of view.
What keynes and followers seem to do – completely ignoring the individual human – is wrong from an empiric point of view, because even simple systems like gases have shown behavior, that was not explainable by looking only at the whole system.
E.g. the unfreeying of degrees of freedom causing a change in specific heat capacity cannot be understood by looking at the gas alone, only with knowledge of atoms it can be explained. As human society is more complex than a simple gas, there are more such effects to be expected, which cannot be understood by only looking at the full system.
“The difference is that in natural sciences the scientists attempt to approach experiments with no preconceived theory in mind. They run their experiments and build theory from the results. They have to work that way because they are ignorant of the subject matter. The method is inductive.”
No.
With a lot of stuff natural scientist have a fair idea about the subject matter. And that in a literal sense, matter is made of atoms made up of inseperable gluons interacting by gravity, elektro weak and strong interaction. Its just calculating from that knowledge the behaviour of a sun is difficult.
Science uses deduction as far as possible, then uses induction to get new input and from that deduce again something.
“Austrian econ is not inductive, but deductive.”
“The differences may be subtle, but the consequences are very serious.”
No, this difference is irrelevant.
What is relevant, is to approach a problem in a way which is supported by experience.
When you have a complex system like for example the sun and want to understand how it operates you have basically 2 options. You can either measure what the properities of the sun or you can use youre knowledge of atoms to calculate the sun.
The first approach is easy to do, but has the risk that you do not see any pattern at all or miss some important subpattern due to limited data and problems to do experiments.
)
The second approach is hard or even impossible to do perfectly, but one knows that conclusions gained from this side are as reliable as the knowledge one has about atoms, which is very reliable.
One can separate the two only for practical purposes, but in the end they must not differ and any difference indicates something was misunderstood.
Therefore one should always apply both approaches, because one of them is a way to check the other.(This is empirical knowledge
So in case of a complex system, the approach supported by experience is to try to look at the full system and at the same time to look at the subsystems and calculate from them the full system behavior.
If applied to economics one should look at all those BNPs and other stuff and try to understand something there and at the same time understand the system from the individual human.
So the correct empirical approach to economics includes an attempt to simulate individual human behavior and deduce from that how groups of humans and the whole society behave.
For this the best method of simulation is needed. Since human behavior is complex we need something with a high calculation power and a program, that operates on the simulation device that is designed to simulate human behavior.
Whether something is able to simulate one can determine by looking whether the simulation can predict human behavior.
We know from empirical knowledge, that the only device, that might have enough calculation power to simulate human behavior is the human brain – at least is capable of operating a human.
And also from empirical knowledge – (micro) evolution – we know that the human brain was trained for tens of thousands of years to predict correctly what the guy with the big club is going to do next.
Therefore for the task of simulating or understanding individual economic behavior and to conclude from that how groups of humans behave, a human is suited well. So the empirical approach leads to the conclusion, that to understand economics one important thing is to find an intelligent human give him pencil and paper and ask him to think about how economy functions.
Of course we could get a lot of idiotic writings that way, therefore comparison with observation is still necessary, to decide who might have simulated human behavior well(e.g. Mises, prdiction for socialism indicates this) and who didn’t succeed(e.g. Marx).
But having humans think about how humans behave economically is a sensible approach from an empiristic point of view.
What keynes and followers seem to do – completely ignoring the individual human – is wrong from an empiric point of view, because even simple systems like gases have shown behavior, that was not explainable by looking only at the whole system.
E.g. the unfreeying of degrees of freedom causing a change in specific heat capacity cannot be understood by looking at the gas alone, only with knowledge of atoms it can be explained. As human society is more complex than a simple gas, there are more such effects to be expected, which cannot be understood by only looking at the full system.
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