Legendary investment guru Jim Rogers has put his plush New York townhome up for sale and will move his family to the Far East.
His reasoning: that is where the big economic powerhouses will be for the rest of the century.
Be sure to also read a good overview on his epic journey across 116-countries over a 3-year time span entitled “Adventure Capitalist.”
Via DealBreaker. See also Doug Casey.
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I cannot blame Rogers for wanting to flee the coup, I just wish he would spend some of his money defending the free market system that enabled such fabulous wealth, and maybe invest a little in his place of birth.
“Adventure Capitalist” is a great book though, and should be required reading for every student in a public school in America.
Jim has said several times that his little daughter is learning Mandarin Chinese.
She should have no problems learning it now.
“Adventure Capitalist” is a good read.
vMI might do well to organize/sponsor/promote an “Investment Biker”-type excursion through what’s left of the American Economy. The journey, viewed through an Austrian lens, could, of course, highlight both the serious problems we face(and why), and examine the many examples of Economic Growth still “coming up through the cracks”.
Compaired to Jim, I’m just a nobody investor, but China? I really have some huge problems with that. I just can’t see it.
Looking at the political freedom rankings and the economic freedom rankings, China is still near the bottom of the bucket. Perhaps the culture likes to blow off the central government, but on paper and practice it’s communist, peoples tax rates are just as high as the United States, and concepts like “the right to bear arms” don’t even exist (to my knowledge). In fact, the political freedom rankings are more important than the economic freedom rankings. Because societies with high political freedoms tend to make big transitions with minimal violence and chaos – and make no doubt about it, there is a huge transition going on in the US, China, and the world today.
One more thing. Living in the US, it is clear that we have more debt than we can ever pay off, and that the US dollar is doomed. On that I really agree. But it is also clear that we are entering the information age and the fundamentals for most other (non dollar) parts of US are comparitavely high. Not to mention, it seems that China’s monitary policy isn’t too healthy either. (they could ruin their peoples savings)
I could really see a situation where the golbal economy falls off a cliff and both the US and China get hit hard. If things go to hell in the US, there is a strong case to be made that the people will get fed up and kick out the powers that be, but if they go to hell in China – God only knows what’s going to happen. Will they seize Tiawan? Forcing a war with the US. Will they seize Hong Kong? Name one communist government that has sat on the sidelines when the economy goes to hell. No, the Chinese government will have a scape-goat, and that will most likely be the US, and US assets, and Tiawan, and possibly Hong Kong.
Now don’t get me wrong. If the powers that be in China neutralize the communist government, and secure the freedoms and free markets. If they really pull it off, then you can better believe that I will be cheering the rise of China all the way. But right now, that is not what I see. I see a mega system that has no free press, no free religion, no right to bear arms, not even the freedom to have an extra kid – who is censoring and regulating away without inhibition while they try to close in on HK. And while I see some free markets, what I don’t see is secured freedoms, secured property rights, and secured investments. What I don’t see are things like the courts favoring property holders and investors over government (except in hong kong, but it I could be ignorant of exceptions).
Perhaps HK will take over China before China takes over HK. I sure hope so, but the realities are that China’s government has the authority, has the tanks, has the guns, and IMHO is troubble with a big T waiting to happen. So excuse me, but for now I just can’t agree that China is the next big thing.
“Looking at the political freedom rankings and the economic freedom rankings, China is still near the bottom of the bucket”
I think Rogers would say in reply that if China were ranked high in poli/econ freedom polls, the country would not represent value and that those high rankings would be priced in to Chinese assets already. He is trying to buy China assets in anticipation that they will be revalued at a higher level sometime in the future. Buy the rumor, sell the fact.
Indeed, “Investment Biker” showed exactly that – opportunities abounded in China and the Soviet Union that at that time was just cracking apart. Rogers marveled at the opportunities this represented, despite the huge overhang of repression. History has proved him right.
Hey ME – organize the tour, and if my bike is running by then, I’m in!
Rogers is probably right that opportunities are greater in Asia at this point that in the US, but I think the US economy as a whole will stay ahead of Asia for many years. I’ve heard people praise Asian economies for 30 years, but they have never lived up to the hype. This past year, the annual dollar growth in US economy was greater than the entire economy of China for the year.
In the 1980′s, everyone but the WSJ had written off the US as a hasbeen.
It might do well to remember the advice left by Lord Rothschild: “Buy when the blood’s running in the streets.”
Seems like China would fit, well, that parameter.
The other thing is: We have whole host of “seers”, from the G-7, to hundreds in Congress, and thousands cubed up in Think Tank-ville, braying for a 20-40% depreciation of the U$D v. yuan. If Rogers, canny he is, is able to remain breathing in the PROC, long enough, he is almost assured gains from the U$D deval. alone.
Vince, Where would(you suggest) the locus be? duration? milage?
Looking at it historically, countires like the US got liberty first and then they evnetually got success. I’ve never seen tyranny slowly removed from peoples backs with the exception of perhaps Chile, but the US played a heavy handed role in that. I think the US will be hard pressed to pull that off with China, esp considering our own financial shape. Anyhow, now that Chile has high freedom rankings but a per-capita wealth way lower than the states – that would seem like a more promising potential for me.
I welcome the chance to be proven an idiot. I would love to see China grow it’s way to liberty. I would love to be a part of that by investing in some way. It is not lost on me how the Chinese farmers faced down the government over “land reform”, and won. It also isn’t lost on me that the US has laws designed to secure our liberties – and in many areas (like honest money and taxes) they have failed anyhow.
Jim is a great student of history and I am one great fan.What Jim says is pretty obvious, his investing style also are based on the obvious , he does the due dilligence determines the fact and bets his money on it knowing that once the fundamentals are soundly determined the chances of losing money is minimal.I have a question to all the readers here In
year 1900 did Americans had any inkling how great their country would be in decades that followed.Did the British know in year 1800 that one day sun would never set on British empire.So is the case with China, in jim’s opinion.Ofcourse it’s hard to predict what course a country would take in the stream of time.But he sees parallels between the China and America of 1900′s and he is betting his money on it.China may or may not be the great power of 21st century.But it certainly would be a great economic powerhouse and I am sure
Jim would make tonne’s of money on his investment.
But it’s one fascinating question? Which country is going to own the 21st century? From where the next big innovations and discovery will come that drive mankind towards further prosperity?? God Bless the Earth.
As I see it Jim Rogers is an oracle in business matters but he seems also to be in a “love affair†with the Chinese government. The People’s Bank of China prints even more money than the Federal Reserve. The consumer price index is increasing more in China than in the United States. The Chinese government gigantic interventions to depreciate the value of the yuan by enormously increases of the supply of money are not a very cleaver move. He is just flirting with the Chinese government because it is good for business and will increase his personal wealth.
Naturally, China offers gigantic opportunities. Market reforms in China during the last 30 years have had an enormous impact. If a hard working, motivated and entrepreneurial spirited people live in a prison camp you will not receive much economic growth. That was the situation before the market reforms in China were introduced. Even small market reforms will have a great effect. China is also still undeveloped and it is a lot easier for them to keep a high rate of economic growth. Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan did it during the 50s, 60s and 70s so why should not China do it today? I think it is quite obvious that China will become a superpower. They will also through the years make more economic reforms. They are headed in the right direction.
Sorry folks my comments should not have been posted here. They were intended as comments for the article “If I were Bernanke I would abolish the Fed and resign” where Jim Rogers called Ben Bernanke a nut for cutting rates.
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