I have this odd notion that in 25 years China will be the freest nation on the planet, albeit without political elections, and America will be buried in the bureaucratic European social democratic model. Republicans will scream bloody murder about Communist China and defend America as being capitalist. My intuition reminds me of a famous quote from Huey Long, when he was asked if fascism will ever come to America: “Oh yes, it will come, but they’ll call it anti-fascism.”

- Josh

I just spent two weeks in China, mainly in the town of Suifu (on the Yang-tse river, on the border between the Sichuan and Yunnan provinces). I also went to Shanghai, Hongkong, Guangzhou, Yibin, and Beijing.

I asked one of my colleagues, “is the government getting bigger or smaller?” He replied, “they say it’s getting smaller, but it’s not.”

Commenting on the fact that almost every denomination of Chinese Yuan (officially known as the Ren Min Bi, or “the people’s money”) has a picture of Mao on it, we agreed to the following truism: if a politician appears on a country’s money, that politician was a particularly bad one.

In discussing the one-child policy, I learned something quite interesting. Notwithstanding that Chinese schools are state-run, parents must pay tuition for their children to attend. This tuition does not cover the full cost, but that’s a better system than the one we have here. I got the impression, also, that the schooling was not compulsory, but I didn’t ask the question directly.

Generally, China appeared to me, even in large cities, to still be quite poor. However, the feel of the people is optimistic, and new construction is everywhere: not just the big projects, like roads and large buildings, but also small storefronts being improved, houses being improved.

Relatedly, I was told by one of my colleagues that he thought that if I visit China again in 5 years, to expect not to see any bicycles on the road. He indicated that bicycles were a declining industry, because more and more people can afford motorcycles.

Since the folks I worked with took a long lunch — I’m not sure if this is common in Chinese culture, but I got that impression — I was able to walk through Suifu almost every day, and observe goings-on. I was heartened by the frugality and work ethic of people. There were bicycle repair shops servicing 20-yr-old bicycles and pedicabs, street vendors of every stripe, children working in shops. It’s not my culture, but it’s clearly a very vibrant economy everywhere I looked.

I was impressed by indications of low crime: bicycles were not locked when parked outside apartment buildings or shops, relatively young children walked around in groups, but unaccompanied by parents. This was true in Suifu and Yibin, at least. The other cities I didn’t have enough time to assess.

I am optimistic on China’s economic prospects, but I couldn’t find any silver to buy. OK, OK, I didn’t try as hard as I could have.