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Source link: http://blog.mises.org/13721/that-cause-and-effect-thing-can-be-tricky/

That cause-and-effect thing can be tricky

August 30, 2010 by

And you don’t get it, you can believe just about anything: Economists agree: Stimulus created nearly 3 million jobs

{ 8 comments }

J. Murray August 30, 2010 at 6:21 am

I love how journalism picks two or three people and then projects their opinions over the entire profession. Especially when they are reporting dissenting views on the subject.

Salamanca34 August 30, 2010 at 7:14 am

Has the LvMI ever considered keeping a “True Unemployment” statistic, like the “True Money Supply” statistic? That would be interesting and useful for discussion.

Seattle August 30, 2010 at 7:26 am

It’s really difficult to measure whether something is productive or not until after the fact: That’s why spotting a bubble while it’s happening is so hard.

Possibly the closest we could come is to count Government and Government-assisted (like state-subsidized corporations) as “negative jobs.” But then we’d probably have 150% unemployment.

Dick Fox August 30, 2010 at 7:45 am

I just love it. When unemployment is at Great Depression levels they claim Keynes kept it from getting worse. When an amazing and surprising, real recovery happens like in the 1920s, the late 1940s, and the 1980s they claim that Austrian/Supply Side policies kept it from being even better. We do live in a Bizzaro World. If the Keynesians don’t stop “creating jobs” soon we may all die.

Bruce Koerber August 30, 2010 at 12:43 pm

Cause and effect: counterfeiting causes the spenders of the funny money to benefit while those who receive the worthless pieces of paper lose. The U.S. government, or more correctly the unConstitutional coup, is in charge of the counterfeiting operation and so it uses the funny money for political purposes while all productive elements of the economy lose.

The ‘effect’ is not jobs created for political purposes but rather the undermining of economic productivity by the criminals running the counterfeit operation.

Walt D. August 30, 2010 at 5:22 pm

Hmm: $1.5 trillion to create 3 million jobs – that’s $500,000 per job. Where do you apply for one of the jobs? Bell, CA? These results do look credible – they follow the general principle that when you impose a tariff or a subsidy to protect jobs, you’d be better off offering the workers a free retirement house in Florida and $100,000 a year.

RTB August 30, 2010 at 8:21 pm


. But its verdict is backed by economists at Goldman Sachs, IHS Global Insight, JPMorgan Chase and Macroeconomic Advisers, who say the stimulus boosted gross domestic product by 2.1% to 2.7%.

I’m sure they were objective. I mean, it’s not like they are beholden to the federal government for anything. And we all know macroeconomics is a non-partisan, objective scientific method which only reflects real life reality.

fakename August 30, 2010 at 9:04 pm

I know RTB, oh and just ignore those non-mathematical Austrian economists, with their almost medieval/tautological verbal logic -I mean worrying about the gold standard and state-corporate collusion is so passe.

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